Articles

3. THE INTEREST RATE APPROACH & THE FISHER EFFECT

The connection between currency exchange rates and interest rate differentials appeared after the end of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1970-1972. (» What is Bretton Woods?)

The interest-rate models assume that the global capital enjoys perfect mobility and that it will immediately take advantage of any interest rate differentials. A situation which is known as ‘Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage’.

Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage

According to covered interest rate arbitrage theory, the interest-rate arbitrage is always active and ensures the covered interest rate parity worldwide.

Interest Rate Parity (IRP)

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) assumes that the interest rate differential between the two countries remains always equal to the differential calculated by using the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. In other words, an exchange rate’s forward premium/discount equals its interest rate differential:

■ Forward premium/discount (%) = interest rate differential (%)

This creates an equilibrium based on the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates.

4. THE MONETARY APPROACH

The Monetary Approach focuses on the monetary policies of two countries to determine their currency exchange rate. The Monetary Approach uses two dynamics to determine an exchange rate, the price dynamics and the interest rate dynamics.

A change in the domestic money supply leads to a change in the level of prices and a change in the level of prices leads to a change in the exchange rate.

Monetary Approach Assumptions

The monetary model assumes:

(i) A freely-floating exchange rate regime (not a fixed exchange rate regime)

(ii) Minimal interventions by central banks

(iii) The aggregate supply curve is vertical

(iv) The prices of tradable goods are immediately adjusted to any change in the dynamics that affect them

(v) The transmission mechanism through prices to the exchange rate is immediate

5. THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS APPROACH

According to the Balance of Payments theory, changes in a country’s national income affect the country’s current account. Consequently, the exchange rate is adjusting to a new level to achieve a new balance of payments equilibrium.

Before moving forward, let us define the balance of payments and the balance of trade.

What is the Balance of Payments?

The balance of payments is a general account that incorporates all the payments and receipts of the residents of a country in their transactions with residents of foreign countries. This account includes a great variety of transactions:

(i) Traded goods and services

(ii) Income from foreign investment

(iii) New investment

(iv) Foreign aid

(v) Capital flows between central banks and treasuries (cash or gold)

Following the Smart Money -The Six (6) Indicators

Traders who can recognize and follow the movements of smart money can improve significantly their trading performance.

What is the Smart Money?

Smart money can be defined as the capital invested by traders with expert knowledge and often with inside information. Smart money can spot trends before others and trades basically against the general market sentiment.

Smart Money and the Foreign Exchange Market

The Foreign Exchange market is a decentralized (OTC) market and that means there is no track record of the aggregate trading activity. That makes things even more difficult to identify the smart money movements. However, there are quite a few indicators providing insight into where the smart money is flowing.

This analysis includes the following indicators:

1. Following the Long-Term Circles of Unemployment, Inflation, and Growth
2. COT Analysis (Commitment of traders)
3. The US-Dollar Index (USDX)
4. The CBOE Volatility Indexes (VIX & Skew Index)
5. The Treasury Bills Correlations
6. Contrarian-News Approach